Modelling And Forecasting Rainfall in East and Western Region of Tamil Nadu using Sarima Model

Abstract

Research on modeling and rainfall forecasting is important because the findings will assist policymakers, legislators, and decision-makers in reducing the harm that drought or flooding can do to the ecology. Rainfall data from the eastern and western parts of Tamil Nadu have been fitted to time series stochastic models in this study. SARIMA (seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) was used to model and predict the rainfall data.The purpose of this study is to model and forecast rainfall using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA).The statistical departments of Coimbatore and Nagapattinam submitted 504 observations spanning 42 years of monthly rainfall data, starting in January 1981 and ending in December 2022, in order to undertake this study. The Nagapattinam and Coimbatore districts were prepared for the monthly rainfall. It was expected that there will be monthly rain in the districts of nagapattinam and Coimbatore using the seasonal ARIMA model after being applied to the collection of rainfall data. The outcome suggests that the sarima (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12 model has the greatest in sample and out sample performance when forecasting rainfall in the districts of Coimbatore and Nagapattinam.